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Solar activity

UTC

Monday, June 14th 2021, 05:15:00 UTC

Regions with Sunspots

  • 2832
  • 2833

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M01 %01 %01 %
Class X01 %01 %01 %
Proton01 %01 %01 %

PCAF: green

Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 13/0752Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/2346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu.

Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun).

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun

24 hr48 hr72 hr
Middle Latitudes
Active10 %25 %25 %
Minor Storm01 %05 %05 %
Major-severe storm01 %01 %01 %
24 hr48 hr72 hr
High Latitudes
Active15 %15 %15 %
Minor Storm25 %30 %30 %
Major-severe storm20 %35 %35 %

3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values (GOES-15)

Manually reviewed and edited by the duty forecaster

BeginMaxEndXrayRegion
Saturday, June 1200:3700:4700:52B1.52833
01:2401:3301:45B2.42833
02:4102:4402:48B1.42833
17:1217:1717:25B1.42833
Sunday, June 1307:4007:4607:50B1.02833
Monday, June 1402:5803:0303:07B1.02832

Sources: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC)

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